ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Stephen Jones, since 2016. Previously member for Throsby 2010-2016.
Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Whitlam covers the entirety of the Shellharbour council area along with southern parts of the City of Wollongong. These suburbs mostly surround Lake Illawarra, including Shellharbour, Dapto and Albion Park. It also includes distinct areas in the Southern Highlands, covering the most populated parts of Wingecarribee Shire, stretching as far west as the Hume Highway and covering Bowral, Mittagong and Moss Vale.
The seat of Whitlam was known as Throsby until 2016. Throsby was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin, with well over 60% at every election since 1993.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George held the seat from 2001 to 2010.
In 2010, Stephen Jones won the seat for the ALP upon Jennie George’s retirement. Jones has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Whitlam is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 50,102 | 48.8 | -4.0 |
| Stephen Wentworth | Nationals | 26,145 | 25.5 | +19.0 |
| Jamie Dixon | Greens | 9,461 | 9.2 | +0.9 |
| Angelo Cuda | United Australia Party | 9,071 | 8.8 | +8.8 |
| Frank Nero | Christian Democratic Party | 4,214 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| Ken Davis | Sustainable Australia | 3,678 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Informal | 8,020 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 62,541 | 60.9 | +60.9 |
| Stephen Wentworth | Nationals | 40,130 | 39.1 | +39.1 |
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries.
Labor won a large majority in two out of three areas, polling 66% in Shellharbour and 70.6% in Wollongong. The Liberal Party polled 54.4% in Wingecarribee, the least populous part of the electorate.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shellharbour | 9.5 | 66.0 | 25,236 | 24.6 |
| Wollongong | 9.4 | 70.6 | 16,542 | 16.1 |
| Wingecarribee | 10.6 | 45.6 | 12,144 | 11.8 |
| Pre-poll | 8.2 | 58.7 | 40,441 | 39.4 |
| Other votes | 11.0 | 59.6 | 8,308 | 8.1 |
Election results in Whitlam at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Greens.
I do feel in the future Whitlam will fall to the Liberals. A lot of areas in Shellharbour are becoming middle-Australia suburbs (lots of tradies, new families) that I feel the Liberals will appeal to better. Plus, there isn’t a lot of industry in Shellharbour in comparison to Wollongong/Port Kembla (Cunningham) that Labor would usually dominate. Stephen Jones is a joke of an MP who supports a very unpopular proposed windfarm in the area. And the redistribution will hit Labor hard considering it has brought more Liberal areas in and taken Labor areas out. If the Liberals have the right candidate then it could be marginal or even enough backlash could result in an upset Liberal gain in 2025 or at least 2028.
Where are the full results of the Redbridge MRP poll?
Mrp poll is mentioned on the pollbludger sites. My problem is with its methodology you take a relatively large sample I think 4k then use this to give individual seat outcomes. If we ignore the large number of to close to call seats. I doubt such a level of precision is possible. My take global figures are approx ok within 1 to 2%. but individual seat polling notoriously unreliable. I don’t think the mrp poll changes this
Whitlam on boundaries that include Bowral and Shellharbour will remain alp held
Agree with James. Becoming more and more middle class and in particular self employed tradies. This demographic has shown support for the LNP
@James @Mr Crown do you think the Liberals can win Shellharbour on the state level in the future?
They didn’t win it in the 2011 landslide (it was marginal though) but things are different to then (Blue Mountains and Campbelltown won’t fall again for example).
@NP – Shellharbour state electorate is different as I feel the demographic changes will catch up with Labor and could go the Liberals. But this will take longer for voters to realise Labor is not suited for the area. Prioritising a wind farm over cost-of-living measures will equal voter backlash, plus the newer argument of ‘Labor only cares about holding Grayndler and Sydney than heartland electorates that would stay with Labor for much longer’. Areas like Tullimbar and Calderwood could be good for the Liberals, and I think by next election Shell Cove will flip and the Shellharbour booth will be into marginal territory.
It’s a long job in my opinion, plus having Labor-voting Dapto will not help whatsoever. But if the Liberals actually put effort in here then it could end up marginal. I estimate around 2030s will be when Liberals win Shellharbour and would have won Whitlam by then.
@James interesting thoughts. Shell Cove is definitely the best part of Wollongong for the Liberals as it’s more middle-class and the Shellharbour booth itself almost fell in 2011 (or maybe it narrowly did, I’d have to check).
Checked it. Shell Cove narrowly fell to the Liberals in 2011, while Shellharbour Public became a marginal Liberal booth in Kiama but they very narrowly missed out in Shellharbour itself.
winning this would be the icing on the cake for the libs
Labor mayor results in Shellharbour will be in the 20s one prepoll is counted. Their worst result in history. This seat is done for labor.
@stew agreed. Plus if you take into account the fact its expanded into lib territory from Hume and the fact Stephen Jones is not the most popular member. If you look at whitlam in 2022 wile Labor recorded 7% swings in seats like Eden monaro, Macquarie and other nsw and national seats this seat swung even though only by a fraction to the libs. Even if he can survive in 2025 he’s done for in 2028.
Having travelled through wingecarribe multiple times for events I can tell Stephen Jones is not winning any additional votes in the new territory
To say this is a potential marginal seat is sheer fantasy. On current boundaries post redistribution this remains a solid Labor seat.
@mick it won’t be for much longer. The member has gone backwards since the seat was created and managed a net loss of votes in an election when Labor came to power with a swing towards them. The new Territory will be hostile towards him and he’s lost parts of woolongong. Issues like cost of living and offshore wind will hit this electorate hard and they will take it out at the ballot box may not win in 2025 but I see a Labor loss in 2028
The greater Shellharbour area includes both sides of
Lake Illawarra more than.balances the vote in.the other side of the seat
As stew. Mentioned Labor vote crashed instead shellharbour. At the council election. I think Jones will still win in 2025 but it won’t be by much I’m expecting a 4% swing at least in 2025